iPhone 5c And 5s Will Be Available In More Countries And Has Shorter Lead ... - Forbes

Apple Apple announced yesterday that the iPhone 5c and 5s would be available in 25 more countries starting on Friday, October 25, and 16 more on November 1 bringing the total number of countries up to 62. In this note I have compared the number of countries and the availability of the iPhone 5 vs. the 5c & 5s at the same time post launch to get a feeling for how they compare and how many iPhones could be sold in the December quarter. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares).

How many countries and when iPhones become available is important but additional carriers are critical to higher iPhone sales. The best example is NTT DoCoMo in Japan which is the largest carrier in the country and the iPhone 5c and 5s are the first ones carried by NTT DoCoMo.

I have developed a Google Google Doc that has the number of subscribers for the three largest carriers in Japan and China available via this link.

The lead-times for the eleven countries websites where Apple has been selling the 5s have essentially remained constant at October since the day they went on sale, September 20. The only exception has been the Gold versions in Hong Kong and Singapore which still shows "currently unavailable".

It may be that lead-times are getting shorter for the 5s since almost three weeks have gone by and there has been no slippage out to November on any of Apple's websites.

So far it appears that Apple will have the iPhone 5c & 5s available in more countries as of November 1 than the iPhone 5 (62 vs. between 31 to 47) and except for the Gold versions of the iPhone 5s the lead-times are shorter for the 5c & 5s than the iPhone 5 at the same point in time.

Last year Apple sold 47.8 million iPhones in the December quarter after selling 26.9 million in the September quarter. This year the company should be helped by having the 5c and 5s available in more countries earlier, additional carriers and potentially shorter lead-times (except for the Gold version). If Apple can ramp the production of the new iPhones it should be able to sell at least 55 million and could be pushing 60 million in the December quarter. This would be after selling somewhere around 35 million in the September quarter (I am estimating 36.3 million).

iPhone 5c and 5s country rollout

• September 20, first availability: 11 countries with China at initial launch for the first time
• October 25: 35 additional countries for total of 46 countries
• November 1: 16 additional countries for total of 62 countries
• End of December: Over 100 countries and 270 carriers

Availability summary as of October 9, almost three weeks after first shipment

• iPhone 5c is at same day availability at Apple, AT&T AT&T and Verizon websites
• All of Sprint's 5c models are available in a week or less
•  Apple websites show October shipments for the 5s. At three weeks or less this is a bit shorter than the iPhone 5 at the same date
• Verizon's Space Gray and Silver have most 5s models shipping in late October which is a bit shorter than the iPhone 5
• Verizon's Gold models are either November 11 (16GB and 32GB) or November 4 (64GB) which is later than the iPhone 5
• AT&T's Space Gray and Silver 16GB models are at 1 to 2 weeks with the 32GB and 64GB at next day. These are shorter than the iPhone 5
• AT&T's Gold models are all at 4 to 6 weeks which is later than the iPhone 5
• All of Sprint's 5c & 5s models, especially the Gold ones, have longer lead-times than the iPhone 5

I have updated the Google Doc I created that is keeping track of the 5c and 5s lead-times on Apple, U.S. carrier websites and now Vodafone Vodafone UK. There is also information for the iPhone 5 and 4S via this link.

iPhone 5 country rollout

• September 21, first availability: 9 countries
• September 28: 22 additional countries for a total of 31
• November 30 or earlier: 16 additional countries for a total of 47
• December 7: 1 additional country for a total of 48
• December 14: 33 additional countries for a total of 81
• December 21: 20 additional countries for a total of 101

iPhone 5 availability summary as of October 10, the same number of days after launch as the iPhone 5c & 5s.

• There were 10 countries where Apple was selling the 5 on its websites. The lead time was 3-4 weeks which is a bit longer than the 5c & 5s
• Verizon had the 16GB models shipping in early November with the 32GB and 64GB versions in late October
• AT&T lead-times were 2 to 3 weeks
• Sprint's lead-time for the 16GB version was up to 3 weeks with the 32GB and 64GB versions at up to 1 week

For detailed listings of which countries were available on what dates I've added that information below.

iPhone 5c and 5s detailed country information

September 20 with 11 countries: US, Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Puerto Rico, Singapore and the UK.

October 25 with 35 countries (total of 46): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, French West Indies, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Reunion Island, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan and Thailand.

November 1 with 16 countries (total of 62): Friday, November 1 in Albania, Armenia, Bahrain, Colombia, El Salvador, Guam, Guatemala, India, Macedonia, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and UAE.

iPhone 5 detailed country information

September 21 with 9 countries: US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and the UK.

September 28 with 22 countries (total of 31): Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.