It has only been three days since the iPhone 5c became available and all the color models lead-times are now at 24 hours for the nine countries that Apple Apple has the 5c for sale. While the 5c is not much of a technical upgrade, and in some respects a step down from the iPhone 5, it is a bit surprising that the 5c can be picked up immediately at the Apple and U.S. wireless carrier sites. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares).
In comparison the iPhone 4S (which did have technical upgrades from the 4) was still at 3 to 5 days lead time on Apple websites until at least January 20, 2012, over 3 MONTHS after it had become available on October 14, 2011. It went to an 'In Stock' status by January 28.
The iPhone 5 which had a bigger screen and improved technology over the 4S took two and a half months, from September 21 to about December 7, for it to reach 'In Stock' status.
I have updated the Google Google Doc I created that is keeping track of the 5c and 5s lead-times on Apple and U.S. carrier websites. There is also information for the iPhone 5 and I've added data for the iPhone 4S also via this link.
Apple has had to manage five colors, two memory sizes, multiple cellular networks, numerous countries and distribution partners and except for the yellow 5c having some slightly longer lead times (which have largely been resolved) you would normally expect that the company would not have been able to estimate how many of each configuration would be needed before consumers had an opportunity to check them out.
There is the possibility that Apple planned to build a large number of each configuration but given the company's historically tight supply chain I doubt they were able to match production to demand so closely. This leads me to believe that the demand for the 5c is below expectations, otherwise we would be seeing longer lead times.
Update on 5s lead-times
On Apple's website the 5s is showing October ship dates for all configurations at the nine countries it is selling the 5s except in Hong Kong and Singapore where the Gold model is still showing 'Currently Unavailable'. There are no changes to the lead-times since Friday evening, the first day it became available.
For the three U.S. carriers I am tracking (Verizon, AT&T AT&T and Sprint) the 5s has lead-times ranging from 7 to 14 days, mainly for the Space Gray and Silver models, while the Gold configurations are at best at 3 weeks and up to 6 weeks. AT&T's and Sprint's lead-times remained constant from Friday evening but Verizon's increased for five of the nine configurations it sells (highlighted in my Google Doc).
As I wrote on Saturday I believe that Apple could report initial iPhone 5c and 5s unit sales in the 3 to 4 million range vs. the 5 to 6 million that most Street analysts are expecting. In the positive camp are Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray who is expecting 5 to 6 million iPhones to be sold the first weekend along with Brian Marshall at ISI and Walter Piecyk at BTIG Research who are projecting about 6 million. In the concerned camp is Keith Bachman at BMO who believes that shipments for the 5s and 5c will be far lower than the 6 million unit demand (5 million that were sold and 1 million that were not able to be shipped) that the iPhone 5 experienced.
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